Why the Yankees Will Miss the Playoffs

I got a lot of slack about my prediction that the Yankees will be sitting on their couches come October this year. So I figured I would back up my prediction with some hard thought analysis.
As someone who falls somewhere in between a lifelong fan and a bandwagon fan, I am hoping that everything I am writing is totally wrong. But I will stand by my prediction. Plus, its Friday afternoon and I don't have much else to write about.

As previously mentioned, I value pitching very heavily.

Like most of American, I tend to undervalue Wang. Over the last 2 years, no pitcher has more wins than he does, yet I would hardly call him an ace. I guess because he is a groundball pitcher and never has big strikeout numbers, and relatively high WHIP and ERA. That being said, he is probably one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL. But after Wang, its a long 4 days until he can pitch again.

That and the memory of Wang's +12 ERA during the playoffs is fresh in people's minds. I don't think that is a sign of anything really though, and fully expect him to get third place in the Cy Young voting, like he does every year.

Mussina is coming off a terrible year with a +5 ERA and an 11-10 record. Does everyone forget that before the last month of the season, people were clamoring for him to be sent down to AAA before the playoffs? I don't think there is a pitcher in the league I admire more than the Moose, especially after his fantastic cameo in Word Play. But I also don't think he can get it done at a professional level much more. Especially not as a number 2 pitcher.

Pettite is starting the season on the DL. Not a good sign.

But what about Hughes and Kennedy! John the Baptist and Jesus! The Prospects! Can't for get about the prospects!

Well, they may become very good pitchers soon. But forgive me for not putting my trust in Hughes who wow-ed fans with an impressive no hitter his second time out. Then blew out his arm and sat out for most of the year. I would like to think he can dominate like that again, but 3 starts and then DL is not a pattern I hope he follows. He just screams injury prone, and right now, the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano millions to fill that role.

Kennedy is just unproven. He may have the goods, but a rookie season will be full of ups and downs.

Now, bad pitching may not sink the ship this year, as there is an epidemic of it throughout the American League, as brought up by The Sports Guy in April 1st's article. With all the bad pitching in the AL, the scores may end up looking more like football scores than baseball. And last year the Yankees scored more runs than ever before.

But I am skeptical here as well.

First off, I hate Giambi. He is always injured, can barely play first base, and if they can get 15 home runs from him it will be a miracle. But then again, I am totally biased here, so what if we examine someone I do like.

Jorge Posada. Love the guy, calls a great game. But last year he hit .338. Thats amazing. His career average is .277 and previous career high was .287. Needless to say, he isn't going to come close to hitting that this year.

You would think A-Rod can hit the same as he did last year, but last year he was hitting at a record pace, who knows if he can keep that up.

Damon, Matsui and Jeter aren't getting any younger and all 3 have seen their stats start to decline in recent years.

Now, this isn't a death sentence. They can still put up numbers (well, so far this year 3, 2, and 3).

But, in order to cover my bases, there is a lot of scenarios that I can see where they do make the playoffs. The Red Sox are full of holes too. Their older players are getting old and hurt at a quick pace, and their younger players aren't quite ready to take over. They may regress a bit this year. Cano and Cabrera continue to improve year after year, and they may start to be the catalyst to some rallies this year. Maybe the pitching staff does hold together. The talent is there. Giambi and Abreau are in contract years, so they will be playing hard every night.

So fear not Yankee fans. Just because I saw too many questions marks to pick them to win the East and/or Wildcard, doesn't neccessarily mean it won't happen. It will take a mixture of things to make it happen, but nothing is impossible. God, I love baseball.

MLB Preview: AL East

Can you believe it? Baseball is a week away (or a day, depending on if you are counting those games being played in Japan or not).

In order to keep you more properly informed jumping into the season, Bikes In Trees presents the most superficial baseball preview you can find. We will be doing one division per day. If you would like to write a more thorough post on a team you are a fan of, send it in. Let us know why they are going to win this year. Or at least why they should demand our attention.

Today we are going to start with the AL East, in honor of the defending Champions. They will be listed in my predicted final standings, so bookmark this post to make fun of me in October.

Boston Red Sox

Key Additions: None really. Some dude named David Aardsma. And of course professional sumo wrestler pitcher Bartolo Colon.

Key Subtractions: Eric Gagne, Brendan Donnelly

Player to Watch: Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury. These two tore up the bigs after their late season call ups last year. Can they do it for a whole season? Will females in Boston swoon more for Ellsbury than Brady as he becomes a household name? I would bet on yes to both. While their boyfriends swoon over his stolen bases and batting average.

What Can Go Wrong: Injuries. In the lineup, its Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Let's face it, these two guys have been on a bit of a decline recently. Injuries and age are catching up. Ortiz is still one of the most feared hitters in the majors, but his knee has been giving him trouble recently. And Manny is a shell of the player he once was. They can both get it done still, but can they get it done all year? Plus there is guys like Youk, Lowell, and Varitek. In the rotation, Schilling's preseason injury is a blessing in disguise. He already let one of the young studs take his place, instead of hitting the DL a month into it when he amassed a 5.36 ERA. Then there is Beckett, who, on top of his history of blisters and back problems, came to camp fresh off his Dunkin Donuts off season training looking like this.

Predictions: Easily wins the Division while still coming off as pretentious, annoying, and not sure how to act as their bandwagon now resembles the Beverly Hillbillies car.


New York Yankees

Key Additions: Morgan Ensberg (who will be a good contributer) and LeTroy Hawkins (who will be a disaster. Just like every other team he has played for, which is about 20 now).

Key Subtractions: None

Player to Watch: Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Are these guys so good that its worth keeping them to pass on the best left hander to play the game?* We will find out. Both have looked fairly good in recent outings. Both are also rookies who will have those random games where they get shelled by Toronto as well.

* May contain minor hyperbole

What Can Go Wrong: They are like 40 years old in every position. They have a rookie manager who ripped through his young pitching staff in Florida so quick that, although they did amazingly well, none were the same again. And in New York he gets to manage 3 extremely young stud pitchers. In fact, the rotation itself is a huge question mark. Except for Wang getting his normal 100 Ks and 17 wins, everyone else is a big question mark. That and the over/under of A-Rod getting booed for hitting .350 yet leaving 3 guys on base is May 14.

Predictions: This team could really go either way. They could catch lightning in a bottle or could just be very ugly. They have a dominant lineup and there is no question they will put runs on the board. But will the weak bullpen and rotation do enough to make sure the Yankees 12 points a game is more than the opponents? Toss up. Come playoff time, the Yankees will have plenty of time to scout players to fill Giambi's ginormous contract for next year.


Tampa Bay Rays

Key Additions: Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Troy Percival (yeah, you read that right)

Key Subtractions: Delmon Young, Elijah Dukes

Player to Watch: BJ Upton. This guy is going to be a stud in the very near future. And this is on a team full of future studs. The Yankees and the Red Sox can't get too complacent, because the Rays will be fierce in a couple of years. And their 20 fans will be thrilled.

What Can Go Wrong: They are young, so there will be those dumb, young mistakes. The pitching staff is full of prospects, which means a year or two of some rough outings as they learn the ropes of the majors.

Predictions: The Rays are really going to surprise people this year with their best record in team history. And although that is still only good for third place in the division, they will finish above .500 and destroy someone's playoff dreams in September.


Toronto Blue Jays

Key Additions: Scott Rolen, David Eckstien

Key Subtractions: Troy Glaus (if you can call that "key" or a "subtraction")

Player to Watch: Alex Rios. I have been in love with this guy for a few years now. I think this is the year he makes the jump from "token All Star on a relatively crappy team" to legitimate MVP candidate. Not like one of the players who will actually win, but one of those dudes who gets a bunch of third place votes and is a feel good story.

What Can Go Wrong: These guys have been hurt for the last 5 years. Their DL has looked like an All Star roster at times. Sure, if they are all healthy, they will make things interesting, but I don't really see that happening. As evident by the fact that Scott Rolen tripped over David Eckstien on the way into their new locker room, dislocating both of their shoulders. Or not.

Predictions: Disappointment. They have good young players as seen last year. Dustin McGowan, Rios, and Acardo will be real good players soon and/or now. Vernon Wells will have to actually play like the player he was before they gave him a fat contract. Frank Thomas will have to play like he was before 2004, AJ Burnett will have to play like he was still in Florida, and BJ Ryan will have to play like he has a healthy arm.

Baltimore Orioles

Key Additions: Adam Jones

Key Subtractions: Eric Bedard, Miguel Tejada

Player to Watch: Adam Jones. He was the key player they traded Bedard away for. He is the kind of guy who can do it all, a true 5 tool hitter. Too bad he can't also pitch.

What Can Go Wrong: It would be easier to say what could go right. Lets just say this: the coaching staff had to chose between Jeremy Guthrie and Steve Treachsel to pick an opening day starter.

Predictions: Pain. This will be an ugly year in Baltimore. Their only bright spots are Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones. And they are openly looking to trade Roberts.