Why the Yankees Will Miss the Playoffs

I got a lot of slack about my prediction that the Yankees will be sitting on their couches come October this year. So I figured I would back up my prediction with some hard thought analysis.
As someone who falls somewhere in between a lifelong fan and a bandwagon fan, I am hoping that everything I am writing is totally wrong. But I will stand by my prediction. Plus, its Friday afternoon and I don't have much else to write about.

As previously mentioned, I value pitching very heavily.

Like most of American, I tend to undervalue Wang. Over the last 2 years, no pitcher has more wins than he does, yet I would hardly call him an ace. I guess because he is a groundball pitcher and never has big strikeout numbers, and relatively high WHIP and ERA. That being said, he is probably one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL. But after Wang, its a long 4 days until he can pitch again.

That and the memory of Wang's +12 ERA during the playoffs is fresh in people's minds. I don't think that is a sign of anything really though, and fully expect him to get third place in the Cy Young voting, like he does every year.

Mussina is coming off a terrible year with a +5 ERA and an 11-10 record. Does everyone forget that before the last month of the season, people were clamoring for him to be sent down to AAA before the playoffs? I don't think there is a pitcher in the league I admire more than the Moose, especially after his fantastic cameo in Word Play. But I also don't think he can get it done at a professional level much more. Especially not as a number 2 pitcher.

Pettite is starting the season on the DL. Not a good sign.

But what about Hughes and Kennedy! John the Baptist and Jesus! The Prospects! Can't for get about the prospects!

Well, they may become very good pitchers soon. But forgive me for not putting my trust in Hughes who wow-ed fans with an impressive no hitter his second time out. Then blew out his arm and sat out for most of the year. I would like to think he can dominate like that again, but 3 starts and then DL is not a pattern I hope he follows. He just screams injury prone, and right now, the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano millions to fill that role.

Kennedy is just unproven. He may have the goods, but a rookie season will be full of ups and downs.

Now, bad pitching may not sink the ship this year, as there is an epidemic of it throughout the American League, as brought up by The Sports Guy in April 1st's article. With all the bad pitching in the AL, the scores may end up looking more like football scores than baseball. And last year the Yankees scored more runs than ever before.

But I am skeptical here as well.

First off, I hate Giambi. He is always injured, can barely play first base, and if they can get 15 home runs from him it will be a miracle. But then again, I am totally biased here, so what if we examine someone I do like.

Jorge Posada. Love the guy, calls a great game. But last year he hit .338. Thats amazing. His career average is .277 and previous career high was .287. Needless to say, he isn't going to come close to hitting that this year.

You would think A-Rod can hit the same as he did last year, but last year he was hitting at a record pace, who knows if he can keep that up.

Damon, Matsui and Jeter aren't getting any younger and all 3 have seen their stats start to decline in recent years.

Now, this isn't a death sentence. They can still put up numbers (well, so far this year 3, 2, and 3).

But, in order to cover my bases, there is a lot of scenarios that I can see where they do make the playoffs. The Red Sox are full of holes too. Their older players are getting old and hurt at a quick pace, and their younger players aren't quite ready to take over. They may regress a bit this year. Cano and Cabrera continue to improve year after year, and they may start to be the catalyst to some rallies this year. Maybe the pitching staff does hold together. The talent is there. Giambi and Abreau are in contract years, so they will be playing hard every night.

So fear not Yankee fans. Just because I saw too many questions marks to pick them to win the East and/or Wildcard, doesn't neccessarily mean it won't happen. It will take a mixture of things to make it happen, but nothing is impossible. God, I love baseball.

Another Man's Take

By Big Grizz


Ed: Big Grizz wanted to get in on the baseball prediction action. And although it was pretty easy for me to not let my Minnesota bias influence my decision beyond the point of "I don't think they will stink thaaaaat bad", I bet you can guess from where Grizz reigns.

Ok Kirb,

Here are the picks. As evidenced by my close to last place position in the Big Grizz March Madness Bracket Spectacular, I'm as good at prognosticating as Star Jones is at being skinny.

AL Central: Tigers
AL East: Blue Jays
AL West: Mariners (we can agree on this one)
Wild Card: Yankees (you'll see why in a minute)

Quick Breakdown: Tigers - because they're my team. In the game against the Royals that we lost it was Verlander that blew it, NOT the bullpen. I think they will surprise. I also think Gary
Sheffield will match his pace to walk 648 times and Cabrera will hit 162 home runs but inexplicably only bat .200. AL East: This is merely a dream of mine that makes my knees sweat. I may pull for this more than the Tigers making the playoff. No reason other than they won't suck and it would be the ultimate slice of karma to see them beat out the Yankees and Sox. Side note - I've come to hate those freaking self-obsessed Red Sox fans more than Yankees fans now. Seriously, is there any city or team more obsessed with itself? Mariners - For the reasons Kirby outlined. Wildcard I picked the Yankees because I want any and everyone (including the Yankees) to piss on the Red Sox and I really don't think the Wild Card will come out of the Central.

AL Pennant: Tigers - No surprise here.

NL East: Mets - I hated Santana when he was with the Twins and however many games he starts, the Mets are guaranteed to win at least that many.

NL Central: Brew Crew - This is because unequivocally anytime anyone thinks the Cubs will be good, they ultimately fail. The Cubs are ultimately too good this year and are destined to do something restupidulous. The Cubs line up is stacked and Fukudome is going to be the MVP. Also, Kerry Wood will blow every save he attempts but no one will care because they can only think about the time he struck out 20 vs the Astros. I will never understand my city's love affair with Kerry Wood. Oh...why the Brewers? They are the second best team in that division.

NL West: No one cares and I can't stay up late enough to watch the games. Take every game Randy Johnson spends on the DL this year, multiply it by 6. That's how many games the DBacks will win. To find out the winner of that division, however, add 1.5 games you will have the Dodger's record.

Wild Card: Braves - Because they always make the playoffs and no one ever cares, except Jane Fonda...about apes.

NL Pennant: Brewers

World Series: Tigers in 4 (assuming Kenny Rogers cheats)

AL Cy Young; Jeremy Bonderman (he was supposed to win it last year and he feels bad he sucked last year)
Ed: I think you picked the wrong Tiger here homer. I think odds are Verlander winning the award ahead of Bonderman.
NL Cy Young: Santana - Duh.

AL MVP: A Rod
NL MVP: Fukudome

AL ROY: Buckholz
NL ROY: Cameron Maybin, he will get plenty of exposure on the AAA Marlins and he is an incredible talent. Even more awesome is the fact he still has braces. If he doesn't win it, the Marlin's dance troupe will: Introducing the Florida Manatees!

Other random Predictions:

Papelbon will blow 15+ saves
The Giants will be worse than the 62 Mets who were only slightly worse than the 02 Tigers.
Roger Clemens will be referred to as Inmate #4894235

Ultimate Take it to the Bank Prediction: Tim McCarver will cause my already embarrassingly low baseball IQ to drop by 0.4 for each minute of a broadcast that I watch that he provides the color commentary for.