NBA Playoffs: Western Conference

By Dr. J

Now that the Western Conference matchups have been set, I can give my take on them. Even though I give predictions with each one of the series, I wouldn’t be surprised if I was dead wrong for any of them except for the Lakers series. All the teams in the West are pretty closely matched up, and this will make for some great playoff basketball.

1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8 Denver Nuggets

Of all the Western Conference playoff matchups, this is the only one which I can see going one way. The Lakers are far and away the favorite of this match-up, and their ability to achieve the best record in the West legitimizes that status. Ever since LA stole (and that’s not strong enough of a word) Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies, they have been playing the best out of any team in the Western Conference. Gasol has fit in nicely, and Lamar Odom appears to be much more comfortable as a third option after Gasol’s arrival. Then there’s Kobe. Kobe is the most indomitable force in the NBA. He is unstoppable. Every time he’s on the floor and doesn’t take the shot on offense, I’m flabbergasted. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have some superstars playing for them, too. Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson are great players, and Kenyon Martin and Nene are functional role players. And don’t even get me started on Eduardo Najera. The Nuggets inability (or is it disinterest?) to play defense is what will make all the difference in this series. Kobe can’t be stopped, and the double teams he draws will only make it easier for Gasol and Odom.

Prediction: The Lakers will flex their muscles against the Nuggets. Because of the Denver superstars, the Nuggets will probably be able to muster enough for one win, but I don’t see much more than that. Lakers in 5.

2 New Orleans Hornets vs. 7 Dallas Mavericks

This series is hard to have an opinion on. The Hornets have the much better regular season record, and they have a budding superstar (and MVP candidate) in Chris Paul. The one thing working against them, though, is that they have a major lack of post-season experience. What I can’t decide here is if they have enough talent to overcome that, and it appears as if they do. They have two all-stars in David West and Chris Paul. Tyson Chandler is a force down low, and who could forget about Peja Stojakovic? This team has some budding stars and great role players around them. Then there are the Mavs. They have the reigning MVP in Dirk Nowitzki, a veteran point guard in Jason Kidd, a shooting guard with ice in his veins with Jason Terry, and a good supporting cast in Josh Howard and Erick Dampier. So, the Mavs easily sport the more veteran cast of characters of the match-up. Working against Dallas, however, is the injury report. Dirk has never completely healed from his late-season injury, and Jerry Stackhouse is still feeling the effects of a groin pull. Finally, there is the playing style of the two teams. The Hornets, by virtue of their superb point guard, are always able to find an easy basket, while the Mavs fall in love with the jumpshot too much. This propensity for taking tough shots will most likely rear its ugly head at the ends of close games, when the defensive intensity gets pumped up.

Prediction: Dallas has experience on its side, and New Orleans has unproven talent working for it. New Orleans has the home-court advantage, and that ought to be enough to just nudge them ahead of the Mavs (because that arena will be going nuts). Hornets in 7.

3 San Antonio Spurs vs. 6 Phoenix Suns

Here you have the classic case of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Suns have started to hit their stride after their addition of Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq is only a shell of his old self, but Amare Stoudemire has really started to shine after the addition of Shaq to the Suns. Nash has started to figure out that the lane will be more clogged up with Shaq in the middle, and he has begun to adapt. On top of this, the Suns showed about a week ago that the addition of Shaq has made them a formidable opponent for the Spurs because Shaq can contend with Tim Duncan. It’s because of the addition of Shaq and the fact that the Suns have figured out how to play with him in their line-up that the Suns are a much better playoff team than they used to be. On the other side, the Spurs seem to be slowing down at the wrong time. They have shown an ability, though, to turn it on at any time they want, and this would be the right time for them to do it. Manu Ginobili has been slowed by a nagging groin injury, and Tim Duncan isn’t as young as he used to be. Tony Parker will be great, but he will probably just be equaled by Nash. Plus, the Spurs never win a championship in even-numbered years (look it up). Compound all of this with recent blowout losses by the Spurs to the Suns, the Jazz, and the Lakers, and the Spurs do not look primed for the postseason.

Prediction: The Suns are hitting their stride, and the Spurs seem to be in a slight swoon. Look for Stoudemire to dominate this series. Suns in 6.

4 Utah Jazz vs. 5 Houston Rockets

The team with the biggest home-court advantage versus the team with the longest win streak of the season. Last season, these two teams faced off in the first round, and the Jazz won in seven games. Let’s see where we’ve gone since then. The Jazz haven’t made many major additions other than adding Kyle Korver (nasty-good 3-pt shooter) to their roster. Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Andrei Kirilenko have one more year of NBA experience under their belts. Then there are the Rockets, who also haven’t made many changes in their lineup. They’ve added super-rookies Carl Landry and Luis Scola, but no major trades. The Rockets, though, are noticeably missing their big man, Yao Ming, this time around. Which brings this question to mind, if the Rockets couldn’t beat the Jazz with Yao Ming last year, then how will they be able to do it this year without Yao Ming? The answer: they can’t.

Prediction: The Jazz will take care of the Rockets. Houston’s chemistry, and Tracy McGrady’s superstardom will prevent the sweep, but it won’t get them the series victory. Jazz in 6.

My Mavericks prediction breaks my heart, but I’m taking the path that Kirby suggested with March Madness and picking against the team that I love. This way if they lose, at least I didn’t pick them to win, but if they win, I’ll be freakin’ pumped! Enjoy the playoffs, I know I will. And I’ll be back with some weekly analysis.