Why the Yankees Will Miss the Playoffs

I got a lot of slack about my prediction that the Yankees will be sitting on their couches come October this year. So I figured I would back up my prediction with some hard thought analysis.
As someone who falls somewhere in between a lifelong fan and a bandwagon fan, I am hoping that everything I am writing is totally wrong. But I will stand by my prediction. Plus, its Friday afternoon and I don't have much else to write about.

As previously mentioned, I value pitching very heavily.

Like most of American, I tend to undervalue Wang. Over the last 2 years, no pitcher has more wins than he does, yet I would hardly call him an ace. I guess because he is a groundball pitcher and never has big strikeout numbers, and relatively high WHIP and ERA. That being said, he is probably one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL. But after Wang, its a long 4 days until he can pitch again.

That and the memory of Wang's +12 ERA during the playoffs is fresh in people's minds. I don't think that is a sign of anything really though, and fully expect him to get third place in the Cy Young voting, like he does every year.

Mussina is coming off a terrible year with a +5 ERA and an 11-10 record. Does everyone forget that before the last month of the season, people were clamoring for him to be sent down to AAA before the playoffs? I don't think there is a pitcher in the league I admire more than the Moose, especially after his fantastic cameo in Word Play. But I also don't think he can get it done at a professional level much more. Especially not as a number 2 pitcher.

Pettite is starting the season on the DL. Not a good sign.

But what about Hughes and Kennedy! John the Baptist and Jesus! The Prospects! Can't for get about the prospects!

Well, they may become very good pitchers soon. But forgive me for not putting my trust in Hughes who wow-ed fans with an impressive no hitter his second time out. Then blew out his arm and sat out for most of the year. I would like to think he can dominate like that again, but 3 starts and then DL is not a pattern I hope he follows. He just screams injury prone, and right now, the Yankees are paying Carl Pavano millions to fill that role.

Kennedy is just unproven. He may have the goods, but a rookie season will be full of ups and downs.

Now, bad pitching may not sink the ship this year, as there is an epidemic of it throughout the American League, as brought up by The Sports Guy in April 1st's article. With all the bad pitching in the AL, the scores may end up looking more like football scores than baseball. And last year the Yankees scored more runs than ever before.

But I am skeptical here as well.

First off, I hate Giambi. He is always injured, can barely play first base, and if they can get 15 home runs from him it will be a miracle. But then again, I am totally biased here, so what if we examine someone I do like.

Jorge Posada. Love the guy, calls a great game. But last year he hit .338. Thats amazing. His career average is .277 and previous career high was .287. Needless to say, he isn't going to come close to hitting that this year.

You would think A-Rod can hit the same as he did last year, but last year he was hitting at a record pace, who knows if he can keep that up.

Damon, Matsui and Jeter aren't getting any younger and all 3 have seen their stats start to decline in recent years.

Now, this isn't a death sentence. They can still put up numbers (well, so far this year 3, 2, and 3).

But, in order to cover my bases, there is a lot of scenarios that I can see where they do make the playoffs. The Red Sox are full of holes too. Their older players are getting old and hurt at a quick pace, and their younger players aren't quite ready to take over. They may regress a bit this year. Cano and Cabrera continue to improve year after year, and they may start to be the catalyst to some rallies this year. Maybe the pitching staff does hold together. The talent is there. Giambi and Abreau are in contract years, so they will be playing hard every night.

So fear not Yankee fans. Just because I saw too many questions marks to pick them to win the East and/or Wildcard, doesn't neccessarily mean it won't happen. It will take a mixture of things to make it happen, but nothing is impossible. God, I love baseball.